San Jose Earthquakes v St. Louis City

← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sun, Aug 16, 02:30 AM UTC · scheduled

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
St. Louis City win in San Jose Earthquakes v St. Louis City · Match result @ 4.75	Main (your slate bets)	$20.15	4.75	$75.56	+27%	—	pending

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
San Jose Earthquakes win	57%	51%	1.67	fair
Draw	23%	23%	4.33	fair
St. Louis City win	20%	27%	4.80	value: +29%

across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Over	63%	65%	1.53	fair
Under	37%	35%	2.57	fair

across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Yes	61%	65%	1.53	fair
No	39%	35%	2.42	fair

across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

PayPal Park