The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
Outcome
Market says
Model says
Best price
Verdict
Houston Dynamo win
54%
57%
1.81
value: +3%
Draw
25%
23%
4.00
fair
DC United win
22%
20%
4.90
fair
across 21 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
Outcome
Market says
Model says
Best price
Verdict
Over
54%
54%
1.81
fair
Under
46%
46%
2.20
fair
across 16 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
Outcome
Market says
Model says
Best price
Verdict
Yes
55%
54%
1.70
fair
No
45%
46%
2.15
fair
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over 9.5
53%
1.85
Under 9.5
47%
2.01
across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
How many cards?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under 5
51%
1.85
Over 5
49%
1.92
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
Price movement — Match result
Outcome
Trend
First
Now
Move
DC United win
4.60
4.40
-4.3%
Draw
4.00
3.80
-5.0%
Houston Dynamo win
1.61
1.77
+9.9%
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.