Houston Dynamo v DC United

← Major League Soccer 2026 · Thu, Jul 23, 12:30 AM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Houston Dynamo win	56%	57%	1.70	fair
Draw	24%	23%	4.00	fair
DC United win	20%	19%	4.90	fair

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Over	56%	54%	1.75	fair
Under	44%	46%	2.20	fair

across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Yes	56%	54%	1.70	fair
No	44%	46%	2.15	fair

across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

Outcome	First	Now	Move
DC United win	4.60	4.55	-1.1%
Draw	4.00	3.95	-1.2%
Houston Dynamo win	1.61	1.65	+2.5%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

Shell Energy Stadium