← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sat, Aug 1, 11:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Montero
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Draw in DC United v Nashville SC · Match result @ 3.50 | Dutch cover | $2.86 | 3.50 | $7.15 | — | +7.15 | won |
Nashville SC win in DC United v Nashville SC · Match result @ 2.39 | Dutch cover | $17.14 | 2.39 | $23.82 | +13% | -17.14 | lost |
Nashville SC win in DC United v Nashville SC · Match result @ 2.39 | Mls sim value | $5.00 | 2.39 | $6.95 | +13% | -5.00 | lost |
Nashville SC win in DC United v Nashville SC · Match result @ 2.33 | Main (your slate bets) | $25.55 | 2.33 | $33.98 | +13% | -25.55 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC win | 41% | 47% | 2.40 | value: +14% |
| DC United win | 32% | 27% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.57 | fair |
across 21 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 51% | 1.91 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 49% | 1.98 | fair |
across 17 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says |
|---|
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC win | 2.25 | 2.31 | +2.7% | |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.42 | +0.6% | |
| DC United win | 3.00 | 2.95 | -1.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 32' | ⚽ (pen) | Sam Surridge · Nashville SC |
| 40' | ⚽ | Shakur Mohammed · Nashville SC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Hany Mukhtar · Nashville SC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Tai Baribo · DC United |
| 56' | ⚽ | Silvan Hefti · DC United |
| 72' | 🟨 | Lucas Bartlett · DC United |
| 77' | ⚽ | Tai Baribo · DC United |
| 84' | 🟨 | Elias Saad · Nashville SC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matthew Corcoran · Nashville SC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | DC United | Nashville SC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 181.00 | 761.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) |
| venue | Audi Field |
| Model says |
|---|
| Best price |
|---|
| Verdict |
|---|
| Yes | 56% | 54% | 1.70 | fair |
| No | 44% | 46% | 2.20 | fair |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 9.5 | 54% | 1.88 |
| Over 9.5 | 46% | 2.06 |
across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 4.5 | 54% | 1.75 |
| Over 4.5 | 46% | 2.07 |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5.80 |
| 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 2.13 |
| elo | 1395.92 | 1601.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.01 | 10.57 |
| eye test v1 | 0.67 | -0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.64 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.60 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 1.32 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.86 |
| league points | 22.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 87.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 2.29 |
| skill v1 | -0.32 | 0.33 |
| solidity v1 | -1.18 | 0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 28.01 | 27.48 |
| state index | -0.29 | 0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.13 | 1.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.76 | 1.29 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 0.79 |