Los Angeles FC v San Diego

← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sun, Aug 16, 02:30 AM UTC · scheduled

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Under in Los Angeles FC v San Diego · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.88	Main (your slate bets)	$17.59	2.88	$33.07	+13%	—	pending
San Diego win in Los Angeles FC v San Diego · Match result @ 5.25	Main (your slate bets)	$11.56	5.25	$49.13	+17%	—	pending

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Los Angeles FC win	62%	55%	1.53	fair
Draw	20%	23%	4.75	value: +8%
San Diego win	18%	23%	5.50	value: +24%

across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Over	67%	61%	1.40	fair
Under	33%	39%	2.95	value: +16%

across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Yes	63%	60%	1.50	fair
No	37%	40%	2.55	fair

across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

BMO Stadium