Promoted from the matrix tournament (won ALL 4 backtest seasons, worst season +$471): when the referee's card average is in the top tercile (>=3.52/game), the match tightens — back the DRAW blind. Model-free context bet; forward trial to survive multiple-comparisons doubt.
football · Match result · status: live · betting forward from 2026-07-04 · same $1000 start as every other strategy
| Bet | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Draw in Argentina v Egypt · Match result @ 5.00 | $10.00 | 5.00 | $40.00 | — | -10.00 | lost |
"Model edge" = model probability × odds − 1 at the moment of betting: the profit the model expected per $1. Positive edge can still lose (single bets usually do) — the question is whether edges are positive on average AND the model's probabilities are honest.