The referee signal finally bettable: card-happy ref (top tercile, >=3.52/game) -> back total cards OVER at the main line from the new odds feed. Settles from post-match team stats.
football · Over/Under total cards · status: live · betting forward from 2026-07-04 · same $1000 start as every other strategy
| Bet | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Over 3.5 in Argentina v Egypt · Over/Under total cards @ 2.05 | $10.00 | 2.05 | $10.50 | — | -10.00 | lost |
"Model edge" = model probability × odds − 1 at the moment of betting: the profit the model expected per $1. Positive edge can still lose (single bets usually do) — the question is whether edges are positive on average AND the model's probabilities are honest.