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Panathinaikos v CSKA 1948

← UEFA Europa Conference League 2026 · Wed, Aug 5, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Marchetti · scheduled

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

BetStrategyStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
Over 4.5 in Panathinaikos v CSKA 1948 · Over/Under total cards @ 1.85
Cards over ref$10.001.85$8.50——pending
Draw in Panathinaikos v CSKA 1948 · Match result @ 7.01
Ref cards draw$10.007.01$60.10——pending

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Panathinaikos win74%1.40
Draw18%7.01
CSKA 1948 win8%19.50

across 14 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.83
Under45%2.26

across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
No60%1.70
Yes40%2.55

across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under 9.552%1.95
Over 9.548%2.02

across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured

How many cards?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under 4.550%1.88
Over 4.550%1.85

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
CSKA 1948 win9.0515.00+65.7%
Draw4.605.88+27.7%
Panathinaikos win1.371.20-12.4%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueOlympic Stadium of Athens