← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 13, 06:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Chase Burns (ERA 2.73, WHIP 1.14) · home: Robert Gasser (ERA 4.43, WHIP 1.28)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.51 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 1.51 | $5.10 | +8% | -10.00 | lost |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67 | Portfolio | $15.45 | 1.67 | $10.43 | +7% | -15.45 | lost |
leg 1: San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 12.25 lost leg 2: Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67 lost leg 3: Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.96 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 40.21 | $78.43 | +664% | -2.00 | lost |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.67 | $6.75 | +18% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 59% | 1.70 |
| Cincinnati Reds win | 41% | 2.70 |
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds win | 2.19 | 2.65 | +21.4% | |
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 1.62 | 1.50 | -7.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Milwaukee Brewers | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1589.83 | 1458.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.36 | -13.69 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 0.79 | 0.79 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 8.30 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 8.00 | 5.00 |