San Francisco Giants v San Diego Padres

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 12, 08:05 PM UTC · scheduled

Probable pitchers: away: Michael King (ERA 3, WHIP 1.17) · home: Cesar Perdomo (ERA 0.9, WHIP 0.8)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.29	$12.88	+5%	—	pending
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24	Pitcher edge	$10.00	2.24	$12.40	+3%	—	pending
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.24	$12.40	+3%	—	pending

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
San Diego Padres win	57%	1.74
San Francisco Giants win	43%	2.29

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
San Diego Padres win		1.52	1.62	+6.4%
San Francisco Giants win		2.19	2.29	+4.6%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.