Toronto Blue Jays v Baltimore Orioles

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 12, 07:07 PM UTC · scheduled

Probable pitchers: away: Kyle Bradish (ERA 3.91, WHIP 1.42)

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Toronto Blue Jays win	56%	1.90
Baltimore Orioles win	44%	2.24

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Baltimore Orioles win		2.24	1.93	-13.6%
Toronto Blue Jays win		1.52	1.90	+24.4%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.