← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 12, 07:07 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Kyle Bradish (ERA 3.91, WHIP 1.42)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.96 | Portfolio | $9.99 | 1.96 | $9.59 | +6% | +9.59 | won |
leg 1: San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 12.25 lost leg 2: Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67 lost leg 3: Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.96 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 40.21 | $78.43 | +664% | -2.00 | lost |
Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.96 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.96 | $9.60 | +14% | +9.60 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 56% | 1.96 |
| Baltimore Orioles win | 44% | 18.75 |
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles win | 2.24 | 1.93 | -13.6% | |
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 1.52 | 1.90 | +24.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | 7 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toronto Blue Jays | Baltimore Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1514.87 | 1499.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.93 | 3.39 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.83 | 0.83 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.70 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.00 |