Sporting Kansas City v Portland Timbers

← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sun, Oct 11, 12:30 AM UTC · scheduled

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Portland Timbers win in Sporting Kansas City v Portland Timbers · Match result @ 2.80	Portfolio	$10.75	2.80	$19.35	+11%	—	pending

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Sporting Kansas City win	39%	33%	2.60	fair
Portland Timbers win	38%	44%	2.80	value: +23%
Draw	23%	23%	4.30	fair

across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

Outcome	First	Now	Move
Portland Timbers win	2.31	2.60	+12.6%
Draw	4.03	4.10	+1.9%
Sporting Kansas City win	2.56	2.33	-9.2%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

Children's Mercy Park