← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 26, 02:10 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Reid Detmers (ERA 3.47, WHIP 1.05) · home: Bryce Miller (ERA 3.99, WHIP 1.15)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.80 lost leg 2: Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 won leg 3: Seattle Mariners win in Seattle Mariners v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 14.72 | $27.45 | +71% | -2.00 | lost |
Seattle Mariners win in Seattle Mariners v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.73 | $7.32 | +9% | -10.00 | lost |
Seattle Mariners win in Seattle Mariners v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 | Portfolio | $6.79 | 1.76 | $5.18 | +3% | -6.79 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners win | 52% | 34.00 |
| Los Angeles Angels win | 48% | 2.17 |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Angels win | 2.01 | 1.49 | -25.9% | |
| Seattle Mariners win | 1.73 | 17.93 | +935.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Angels | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| Seattle Mariners | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Seattle Mariners | Los Angeles Angels |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1472.10 | 1417.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.65 | -5.37 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.02 | 1.02 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.70 |