← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Sep 25, 10:45 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: · home: Andrew Alvarez (ERA 3.17, WHIP 1.26)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.80 lost leg 2: Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 won leg 3: Seattle Mariners win in Seattle Mariners v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 14.72 | $27.45 | +71% | -2.00 | lost |
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.36 | +12% | +12.36 | won |
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.36 | +12% | +12.36 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| New York Mets win | 55% | 1.93 |
| Washington Nationals win | 45% | 2.29 |
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets win | 1.70 | 1.76 | +3.5% | |
| Washington Nationals win | 2.01 | 2.11 | +5.1% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| Washington Nationals | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | — | 7 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Washington Nationals | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1467.04 | 1500.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.10 | 6.26 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 2.23 | 1.17 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.90 |