San Francisco Giants 0–2 Los Angeles Dodgers

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 26, 02:15 AM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Tarik Skubal (ERA 2.85, WHIP 0.99) · home: Yunior Marte (ERA 4.66, WHIP 1.4)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
leg 1: San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.80 lost leg 2: Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 won leg 3: Seattle Mariners win in Seattle Mariners v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 lost	Chaos parlay	$2.00	14.72	$27.45	+71%	-2.00	lost
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.80	Elo value MLB	$10.00	3.80	$28.00	+40%	-10.00	lost
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.66	Portfolio	$9.88	3.66	$26.25	+16%	-9.88	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Los Angeles Dodgers win	73%	1.36
San Francisco Giants win	27%	4.13

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Los Angeles Dodgers win		1.31	1.31	-0.0%
San Francisco Giants win		3.40	3.65	+7.3%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Los Angeles Dodgers	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
San Francisco Giants	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	San Francisco Giants	Los Angeles Dodgers
congestion 21d	17.00	18.00
elo	1458.66	1585.98
elo momentum (last 5)	-6.72	-0.60
matches since win	2.00	2.00
rest days	2.27	1.00
runs against avg (last 10)	4.60	2.50
runs for avg (last 10)	3.70	4.90