Atlanta Braves 5–3 Philadelphia Phillies

← Major League Baseball 2026 · playoffs · Tue, Sep 29, 06:00 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Jesús Luzardo (ERA 2.86, WHIP 1.07) · home: Chris Sale (ERA 2.16, WHIP 0.98)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
leg 1: Philadelphia Phillies win in Atlanta Braves v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.72 lost leg 2: Diamondbacks/Phillies win in Atlanta Braves v Diamondbacks/Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.72 lost	Portfolio	$9.81	2.72	$16.87	-56%	-9.81	lost
leg 1: Philadelphia Phillies win in Atlanta Braves v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.72 lost leg 2: Diamondbacks/Phillies win in Atlanta Braves v Diamondbacks/Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.72 lost	Steam confusion	$10.00	2.72	$17.20	-46%	-10.00	lost
leg 1: Philadelphia Phillies win in Atlanta Braves v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.72 lost leg 2: Diamondbacks/Phillies win in Atlanta Braves v Diamondbacks/Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.72 lost	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.72	$17.20	-46%	-10.00	lost
leg 1: Philadelphia Phillies win in Atlanta Braves v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.72 lost leg 2: Diamondbacks/Phillies win in Atlanta Braves v Diamondbacks/Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.72 lost	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.72	$17.20	-46%	-10.00	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Atlanta Braves win	63%	1.55
Philadelphia Phillies win	37%	3.66

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Philadelphia Phillies win		2.59	2.59	0.0%
Atlanta Braves win		1.50	1.52	+1.5%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Philadelphia Phillies	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	3
Atlanta Braves	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	3	—	5

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Atlanta Braves	Philadelphia Phillies
elo	1542.44	1542.25
elo momentum (last 5)	-1.58	-12.88