← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 10:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Noah Cameron (ERA 3.84, WHIP 1.19) · home: Bubba Chandler (ERA 4.28, WHIP 1.35)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Pittsburgh Pirates v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 | Portfolio | $14.18 | 1.93 | $13.19 | +7% | +13.19 | won |
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Pittsburgh Pirates v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.79 | $7.94 | +6% | +7.94 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 53% | 1.93 |
| Kansas City Royals win | 47% | 2.09 |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals win | 2.05 | 1.98 | -3.5% | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 1.67 | 1.86 | +11.1% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — | 6 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pittsburgh Pirates | Kansas City Royals |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1503.51 | 1463.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.51 | -6.49 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.30 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.10 |