← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 12, 01:40 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: George Kirby (ERA 4.18, WHIP 1.34) · home: Jeffrey Springs (ERA 6.02, WHIP 1.45)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.50 | Portfolio | $7.89 | 2.50 | $11.83 | +7% | +11.83 | won |
leg 1: Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.40 won leg 2: Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.60 won leg 3: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Texas Rangers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 6.87 | $11.74 | +33% | +11.74 | won |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.40 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.40 | $13.99 | +12% | +13.99 | won |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.40 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.40 | $13.99 | +12% | +13.99 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners win | 61% | 1.97 |
| Oakland Athletics win | 39% | 3.52 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners win | 1.56 | 1.35 | -13.5% | |
| Oakland Athletics win | 2.29 | 3.10 | +35.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| Oakland Athletics | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oakland Athletics | Seattle Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1420.71 | 1477.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.15 | -3.27 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 2.27 | 1.23 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.30 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 5.10 |