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Oakland Athletics v Seattle Mariners

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 12, 01:40 AM UTC · scheduled

Probable pitchers: away: George Kirby (ERA 4.18, WHIP 1.34) · home: Jeffrey Springs (ERA 6.02, WHIP 1.45)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

BetStrategyStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.50
Portfolio$7.892.50$11.83+7%—pending
leg 1: Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.40
leg 2: Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.60 won
leg 3: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Texas Rangers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79
Chaos parlay$2.006.87$11.74+33%—pending
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.40
Elo value MLB$10.002.40$13.99+12%—pending
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.40
MLB dog variance$10.002.40$13.99+12%—pending

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Seattle Mariners win60%1.97
Oakland Athletics win40%2.50

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Seattle Mariners win1.561.97+26.3%
Oakland Athletics win2.291.86-18.7%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

12345678Total
Seattle Mariners11000200—
Oakland Athletics20200000—