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Miami Marlins 2–6 Los Angeles Dodgers

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Sep 11, 11:10 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: · home: Ryan Gusto (ERA 4.23, WHIP 1.41)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

BetStrategyStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
leg 1: Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.08 lost
leg 2: Philadelphia Phillies win in Atlanta Braves v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 lost
leg 3: Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.52 won
Chaos parlay$2.0010.49$18.98+45%-2.00lost
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.08
Elo value MLB$10.003.08$20.77+29%-10.00lost
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.08
MLB dog variance$10.003.08$20.77+29%-10.00lost
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.81
Portfolio$5.892.81$10.67+6%-5.89lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Los Angeles Dodgers win65%1.52
Miami Marlins win35%3.18

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Los Angeles Dodgers win1.501.40-6.8%
Miami Marlins win2.593.08+18.9%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

123456789Total
Los Angeles Dodgers0010014006
Miami Marlins0000010102