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Atlanta Braves 6–5 Philadelphia Phillies

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Sep 11, 11:15 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Aaron Nola (ERA 4.76, WHIP 1.37) · home: Chris Sale (ERA 2.1, WHIP 1.01)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

BetStrategyStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
Philadelphia Phillies win in Atlanta Braves v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.64
Portfolio$12.592.64$20.65+13%-12.59lost
leg 1: Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.08 lost
leg 2: Philadelphia Phillies win in Atlanta Braves v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 lost
leg 3: Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.52 won
Chaos parlay$2.0010.49$18.98+45%-2.00lost
Philadelphia Phillies win in Atlanta Braves v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24
Elo value MLB$10.002.24$12.36+6%-10.00lost
Philadelphia Phillies win in Atlanta Braves v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24
MLB dog variance$10.002.24$12.36+6%-10.00lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Atlanta Braves win60%3.80
Philadelphia Phillies win40%2.64

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Philadelphia Phillies win2.241.29-42.1%
Atlanta Braves win1.573.80+141.9%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

1234567891011Total
Philadelphia Phillies030000000115
Atlanta Braves100000101126