The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
Outcome
Market says
Model says
Best price
Verdict
Philadelphia Union win
68%
50%
1.48
fair
Draw
18%
25%
5.90
value: +46%
Real Salt Lake win
14%
25%
8.00
value: +103%
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Price movement — Match result
Outcome
Trend
First
Now
Move
Real Salt Lake win
7.85
6.75
-14.0%
Draw
5.65
5.20
-8.0%
Philadelphia Union win
1.29
1.39
+7.3%
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.