← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Sep 25, 10:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Bubba Chandler (ERA 4.34, WHIP 1.37) · home: Jackson Jobe (ERA 3.98, WHIP 1.2)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 won leg 2: Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.48 won leg 3: New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.65 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 4.90 | $7.80 | +19% | +7.80 | won |
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.01 | $10.10 | +8% | +10.10 | won |
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 | Portfolio | $7.58 | 2.14 | $8.64 | +5% | +8.64 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 53% | 1.97 |
| Detroit Tigers win | 47% | 2.14 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 1.67 | 1.93 | +15.2% | |
| Detroit Tigers win | 2.01 | 1.92 | -4.2% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| Detroit Tigers | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | 8 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Detroit Tigers | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1495.01 | 1506.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.71 | 2.82 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 2.23 | 1.25 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.90 |