← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Sep 25, 11:30 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.78 | Portfolio | $13.97 | 1.78 | $10.90 | +7% | +10.90 | won |
leg 1: Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 won leg 2: Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.48 won leg 3: New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.65 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 4.90 | $7.80 | +19% | +7.80 | won |
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.65 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.65 | $6.48 | +5% | +6.48 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees win | 58% | 1.86 |
| Baltimore Orioles win | 42% | 2.59 |
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles win | 2.59 | 2.16 | -16.7% | |
| New York Yankees win | 1.65 | 1.67 | +1.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| New York Yankees | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | — | 6 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | New York Yankees | Baltimore Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 20.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1562.64 | 1509.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.61 | 10.63 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 2.60 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.30 |