Chicago White Sox 6–1 Colorado Rockies

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Sep 25, 11:40 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Tomoyuki Sugano (ERA 5.36, WHIP 1.33) · home: Sean Burke (ERA 3.4, WHIP 1.2)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.47	Pitcher edge	$10.00	1.47	$4.70	+5%	+4.70	won
leg 1: Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 won leg 2: Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.48 won leg 3: New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.65 won	Chaos parlay	$2.00	4.90	$7.80	+19%	+7.80	won
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.48	Elo value MLB	$10.00	1.48	$4.80	+6%	+4.80	won
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.60	Portfolio	$15.38	1.60	$9.16	+5%	+9.16	won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Chicago White Sox win	64%	1.60
Colorado Rockies win	36%	2.98

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Colorado Rockies win		2.46	2.89	+17.7%
Chicago White Sox win		1.52	1.45	-4.9%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Colorado Rockies	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Chicago White Sox	2	0	1	0	0	0	1	2	—	6

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Chicago White Sox	Colorado Rockies
congestion 21d	19.00	19.00
elo	1501.06	1368.94
elo momentum (last 5)	13.25	-5.57
matches since win	0.00	4.00
rest days	1.23	1.19
runs against avg (last 10)	4.70	6.30
runs for avg (last 10)	6.50	4.40