← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 27, 07:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Michael Soroka (ERA 3.31, WHIP 1.09)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Arizona Diamondbacks · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 | Portfolio | $17.72 | 2.46 | $25.86 | +21% | +25.86 | won |
leg 1: San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Arizona Diamondbacks · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 won leg 2: Minnesota Twins win in Minnesota Twins v Texas Rangers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.08 won leg 3: Tampa Bay Rays win in Philadelphia Phillies v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.32 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 11.87 | $21.73 | +59% | -2.00 | lost |
San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Arizona Diamondbacks · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.46 | $14.59 | +46% | +14.59 | won |
San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Arizona Diamondbacks · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.76 | $7.63 | +5% | +7.63 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres win | 53% | 2.46 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks win | 47% | 3.96 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks win | 1.93 | 1.76 | -8.8% | |
| San Diego Padres win | 1.70 | 1.86 | +9.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| San Diego Padres | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | — | 9 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | San Diego Padres | Arizona Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1550.98 | 1523.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.33 | 9.97 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 0.77 | 0.77 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 5.10 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 6.20 |