← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 27, 06:30 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Nick Martinez (ERA 2.94, WHIP 1.07) · home: Zack Wheeler (ERA 3.06, WHIP 1.06)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Arizona Diamondbacks · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 won leg 2: Minnesota Twins win in Minnesota Twins v Texas Rangers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.08 won leg 3: Tampa Bay Rays win in Philadelphia Phillies v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.32 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 11.87 | $21.73 | +59% | -2.00 | lost |
Tampa Bay Rays win in Philadelphia Phillies v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.32 | Steam confusion | $10.00 | 2.32 | $13.20 | +4% | -10.00 | lost |
Tampa Bay Rays win in Philadelphia Phillies v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.32 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.32 | $13.20 | +4% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 56% | 1.86 |
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 44% | 8.56 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 2.19 | 2.23 | +2.0% | |
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 1.62 | 1.69 | +4.2% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 7 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Philadelphia Phillies | Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1538.69 | 1555.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.38 | 7.40 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 2.60 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 4.50 |