← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 27, 07:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: MacKenzie Gore (ERA 4.59, WHIP 1.34) · home: Dean Kremer (ERA 4.97, WHIP 1.2)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Arizona Diamondbacks · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 won leg 2: Minnesota Twins win in Minnesota Twins v Texas Rangers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.08 won leg 3: Tampa Bay Rays win in Philadelphia Phillies v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.32 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 11.87 | $21.73 | +59% | -2.00 | lost |
Minnesota Twins win in Minnesota Twins v Texas Rangers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.08 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.08 | $10.80 | +5% | +10.80 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Texas Rangers win | 52% | 4.13 |
| Minnesota Twins win | 48% | 2.08 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Rangers win | 1.57 | 1.81 | +15.2% | |
| Minnesota Twins win | 1.97 | 2.05 | +4.1% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Rangers | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| Minnesota Twins | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — | 6 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Minnesota Twins | Texas Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1457.84 | 1487.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.37 | -6.09 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.96 | 0.96 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.30 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.10 |