St. Louis Cardinals 1–9 Washington Nationals

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 12:15 AM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Cade Cavalli (ERA 3.12, WHIP 1.17) · home: Kyle Leahy (ERA 3.33, WHIP 1.31)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
leg 1: San Francisco Giants win in Los Angeles Dodgers v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.80 lost leg 2: St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.83 lost leg 3: Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 won	Chaos parlay	$2.00	14.54	$27.08	+29%	-2.00	lost
St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.83	Elo value MLB	$10.00	1.83	$8.27	+8%	-10.00	lost
St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.97	Portfolio	$12.47	1.97	$12.10	+7%	-12.47	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
St. Louis Cardinals win	52%	1.97
Washington Nationals win	48%	2.14

across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Washington Nationals win		1.93	2.11	+9.2%
St. Louis Cardinals win		1.88	1.77	-5.8%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Washington Nationals	3	0	4	1	0	1	0	0	0	9
St. Louis Cardinals	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Nationals
congestion 21d	18.00	16.00
elo	1487.23	1456.30
elo momentum (last 5)	-5.61	6.18
matches since win	2.00	1.00
rest days	2.29	2.06
runs against avg (last 10)	4.90	4.90
runs for avg (last 10)	4.60	4.00