Texas Rangers 7–1 Toronto Blue Jays

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 12:05 AM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Dylan Cease (ERA 2.38, WHIP 1.06) · home: Kumar Rocker (ERA 4.54, WHIP 1.43)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.27	Portfolio	$11.99	2.27	$15.23	+8%	+15.23	won
Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.27	Steam confusion	$10.00	2.27	$12.70	+18%	+12.70	won
Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.27	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.27	$12.70	+18%	+12.70	won
leg 1: San Francisco Giants win in Los Angeles Dodgers v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.80 lost leg 2: St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.83 lost leg 3: Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 won	Chaos parlay	$2.00	14.54	$27.08	+29%	-2.00	lost
Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.09	$10.95	+8%	+10.95	won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Toronto Blue Jays win	52%	8.56
Texas Rangers win	48%	2.27

across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Toronto Blue Jays win		1.90	1.83	-3.5%
Texas Rangers win		1.90	2.04	+7.6%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Toronto Blue Jays	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
Texas Rangers	0	4	0	0	1	1	0	1	—	7

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Texas Rangers	Toronto Blue Jays
congestion 21d	18.00	17.00
elo	1490.03	1517.10
elo momentum (last 5)	12.36	2.22
matches since win	1.00	0.00
rest days	1.00	2.21
runs against avg (last 10)	4.40	4.40
runs for avg (last 10)	5.10	4.00