← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 08:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: · home: Christian Scott (ERA 3.76, WHIP 1.26)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Philadelphia Phillies win in New York Mets v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.10 | Portfolio | $9.95 | 2.10 | $10.95 | +6% | -9.95 | lost |
Philadelphia Phillies win in New York Mets v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.97 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 1.97 | $9.70 | +6% | -10.00 | lost |
Philadelphia Phillies win in New York Mets v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.97 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.97 | $9.70 | +6% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| New York Mets win | 53% | 1.83 |
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 47% | 2.10 |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 1.90 | 2.02 | +6.6% | |
| New York Mets win | 1.76 | 1.81 | +2.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| New York Mets | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | — | 10 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | New York Mets | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1493.89 | 1553.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.73 | 2.57 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.90 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.50 |