← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 26, 11:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Quinn Mathews (ERA 3.65, WHIP 1.38) · home: Dustin May (ERA 4.67, WHIP 1.32)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.56 | Portfolio | $9.50 | 1.56 | $5.32 | +4% | +5.32 | won |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.55 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.55 | $5.47 | +8% | +5.47 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 62% | 1.62 |
| St. Louis Cardinals win | 38% | 2.62 |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals win | 2.52 | 2.59 | +2.6% | |
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 1.55 | 1.55 | 0.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Milwaukee Brewers | St. Louis Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1600.36 | 1478.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.23 | 0.71 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 0.98 | 0.98 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 5.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.10 |