← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 20, 05:35 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Michael Wacha (ERA 3.34, WHIP 1.1) · home: Lake Bachar (ERA 3.5, WHIP 1.12)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Pittsburgh Pirates v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.98 | Portfolio | $14.34 | 1.98 | $14.05 | +8% | +14.05 | won |
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Pittsburgh Pirates v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.76 | $7.63 | +5% | +7.63 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 50% | 3.66 |
| Kansas City Royals win | 50% | 2.05 |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals win | 1.93 | 1.86 | -3.7% | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 1.73 | 1.98 | +14.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | — | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pittsburgh Pirates | Kansas City Royals |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1505.09 | 1462.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.60 | -5.66 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 0.79 | 0.79 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.20 |