← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 27, 07:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Jared Jones (ERA 3.87, WHIP 1.12) · home: River Ryan (ERA 0, WHIP 1)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 | Portfolio | $9.23 | 2.14 | $10.52 | +7% | -9.23 | lost |
leg 1: Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52 lost leg 2: Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 lost leg 3: Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.50 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 7.61 | $13.23 | +28% | -2.00 | lost |
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 2.01 | $10.10 | +9% | -10.00 | lost |
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.01 | $10.10 | +9% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 55% | 1.83 |
| Detroit Tigers win | 45% | 3.52 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 1.67 | 1.76 | +5.2% | |
| Detroit Tigers win | 2.24 | 2.09 | -6.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Detroit Tigers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Detroit Tigers | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1498.72 | 1502.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.05 | -4.02 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 1.08 | 1.08 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.40 |