Chicago White Sox 4–2 Colorado Rockies

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 27, 07:10 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Kyle Freeland (ERA 6.58, WHIP 1.52) · home: Anthony Kay (ERA 4.53, WHIP 1.37)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.51	Portfolio	$8.79	1.51	$4.48	+3%	+4.48	won
leg 1: Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52 lost leg 2: Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 lost leg 3: Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.50 won	Chaos parlay	$2.00	7.61	$13.23	+28%	-2.00	lost
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.50	Pitcher edge	$10.00	1.50	$5.02	+7%	+5.02	won
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.50	Elo value MLB	$10.00	1.50	$5.02	+7%	+5.02	won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Chicago White Sox win	63%	1.60
Colorado Rockies win	37%	7.85

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Colorado Rockies win		2.46	2.73	+10.9%
Chicago White Sox win		1.48	1.48	+0.3%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Colorado Rockies	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	2
Chicago White Sox	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	—	4

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Chicago White Sox	Colorado Rockies
congestion 21d	19.00	19.00
elo	1498.17	1371.83
elo momentum (last 5)	3.30	-4.65
matches since win	1.00	0.00
rest days	0.83	0.83
runs against avg (last 10)	4.70	6.40
runs for avg (last 10)	6.40	3.80