← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 27, 01:40 AM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52 lost leg 2: Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 lost leg 3: Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.50 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 7.61 | $13.23 | +28% | -2.00 | lost |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.52 | $15.22 | +10% | -10.00 | lost |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | -1% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros win | 60% | 1.70 |
| Oakland Athletics win | 40% | 3.29 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros win | 1.50 | 1.36 | -9.3% | |
| Oakland Athletics win | 2.29 | 3.29 | +43.6% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| Oakland Athletics | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oakland Athletics | Houston Astros |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1413.10 | 1494.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.69 | 0.33 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.30 |