← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Sep 23, 11:00 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Foster Griffin (ERA 3.67, WHIP 1.19) · home: Sonny Gray (ERA 2.82, WHIP 1.16)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.80 | Portfolio | $6.45 | 1.80 | $5.16 | +3% | +5.16 | won |
leg 1: San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 lost leg 2: Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 won leg 3: Pittsburgh Pirates win in Pittsburgh Pirates v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 6.40 | $10.79 | +27% | -2.00 | lost |
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.73 | $7.32 | +5% | +7.32 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 54% | 1.80 |
| Cleveland Guardians win | 46% | 2.18 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians win | 2.01 | 2.10 | +4.5% | |
| Boston Red Sox win | 1.73 | 1.76 | +1.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Boston Red Sox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boston Red Sox | Cleveland Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1540.96 | 1512.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.32 | 11.40 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.01 | 1.01 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 5.40 |