San Francisco Giants 2–4 Minnesota Twins

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Sep 23, 07:45 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Connor Prielipp (ERA 4.94, WHIP 1.3) · home: Cesar Perdomo (ERA 3.72, WHIP 1.5)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24	Pitcher edge	$10.00	2.24	$12.36	+27%	-10.00	lost
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.24	$12.36	+27%	-10.00	lost
leg 1: San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 lost leg 2: Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 won leg 3: Pittsburgh Pirates win in Pittsburgh Pirates v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 lost	Chaos parlay	$2.00	6.40	$10.79	+27%	-2.00	lost
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.09	$10.95	+17%	-10.00	lost
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09	Portfolio	$10.73	2.09	$11.75	+6%	-10.73	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Minnesota Twins win	54%	1.76
San Francisco Giants win	46%	2.29

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Minnesota Twins win		1.67	1.70	+1.7%
San Francisco Giants win		1.97	2.24	+13.5%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Minnesota Twins	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	0	0	4
San Francisco Giants	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	2

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	San Francisco Giants	Minnesota Twins
congestion 21d	19.00	19.00
elo	1462.04	1453.66
elo momentum (last 5)	-5.86	5.76
matches since win	1.00	0.00
rest days	0.75	0.75
runs against avg (last 10)	4.90	4.70
runs for avg (last 10)	4.10	3.60