Pittsburgh Pirates 1–5 St. Louis Cardinals

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Sep 23, 10:40 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Matthew Liberatore (ERA 5.36, WHIP 1.49) · home: Lake Bachar (ERA 3.56, WHIP 1.14)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Pittsburgh Pirates v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.87	Portfolio	$7.47	1.87	$6.50	+4%	-7.47	lost
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Pittsburgh Pirates v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.87	Pitcher edge	$10.00	1.87	$8.70	+10%	-10.00	lost
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Pittsburgh Pirates v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.87	Elo value MLB	$10.00	1.87	$8.70	+10%	-10.00	lost
leg 1: San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 lost leg 2: Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 won leg 3: Pittsburgh Pirates win in Pittsburgh Pirates v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 lost	Chaos parlay	$2.00	6.40	$10.79	+27%	-2.00	lost
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Pittsburgh Pirates v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76	Drought fade	$10.00	1.76	$7.63	+4%	-10.00	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Pittsburgh Pirates win	53%	1.87
St. Louis Cardinals win	47%	2.19

across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
St. Louis Cardinals win		2.05	2.00	-2.5%
Pittsburgh Pirates win		1.73	1.83	+5.6%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
St. Louis Cardinals	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	5
Pittsburgh Pirates	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Pittsburgh Pirates	St. Louis Cardinals
congestion 21d	18.00	18.00
elo	1509.12	1477.67
elo momentum (last 5)	12.52	-11.90
matches since win	0.00	1.00
rest days	1.00	1.00
runs against avg (last 10)	4.60	4.90
runs for avg (last 10)	4.10	3.60