← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 20, 11:20 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Jacob Misiorowski (ERA 1.89, WHIP 0.81) · home: Brandon Young (ERA 3.65, WHIP 1.37)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.80 | Portfolio | $7.98 | 2.80 | $14.36 | +8% | -7.98 | lost |
leg 1: Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52 lost leg 2: Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05 won leg 3: Los Angeles Angels win in Los Angeles Angels v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 10.40 | $18.80 | +18% | -2.00 | lost |
Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.52 | $15.22 | +8% | -10.00 | lost |
Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.52 | $15.22 | +8% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 65% | 1.55 |
| Baltimore Orioles win | 35% | 31.21 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 1.52 | 1.02 | -33.1% | |
| Baltimore Orioles win | 2.66 | 31.21 | +1074.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Baltimore Orioles | Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1499.28 | 1591.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.89 | 4.19 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.14 | 1.14 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.90 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 6.90 |