← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 11:05 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: José Soriano (ERA 3.56, WHIP 1.27) · home: Cal Quantrill (ERA 2.9, WHIP 1.05)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52 lost leg 2: Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05 won leg 3: Los Angeles Angels win in Los Angeles Angels v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 10.40 | $18.80 | +18% | -2.00 | lost |
Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.05 | $10.51 | +5% | +10.51 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Texas Rangers win | 52% | 2.05 |
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 48% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 1.93 | 1.86 | -3.7% | |
| Texas Rangers win | 1.76 | 1.97 | +11.8% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Texas Rangers | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | — | 6 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Texas Rangers | Toronto Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1494.18 | 1512.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.92 | -5.14 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 0.96 | 0.96 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.00 |