← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 20, 08:07 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Dean Kremer (ERA 5.35, WHIP 1.24) · home: Ryan Johnson (ERA 4.88, WHIP 1.34)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52 lost leg 2: Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05 won leg 3: Los Angeles Angels win in Los Angeles Angels v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 10.40 | $18.80 | +18% | -2.00 | lost |
Los Angeles Angels win in Los Angeles Angels v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.01 | $10.10 | +4% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins win | 53% | 1.90 |
| Los Angeles Angels win | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins win | 1.76 | 1.83 | +3.6% | |
| Los Angeles Angels win | 1.93 | 2.01 | +4.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Los Angeles Angels | Minnesota Twins |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1424.99 | 1449.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.51 | -1.25 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 0.77 | 0.77 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 5.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.10 |