← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Sep 15, 10:40 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Pittsburgh Pirates v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.15 | Portfolio | $12.37 | 3.15 | $26.60 | +15% | -12.37 | lost |
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Pittsburgh Pirates v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.81 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.81 | $18.11 | +18% | -10.00 | lost |
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Pittsburgh Pirates v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.40 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.40 | $13.99 | +1% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 63% | 1.67 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 37% | 3.15 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 1.65 | 1.40 | -14.7% | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 2.24 | 3.05 | +36.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pittsburgh Pirates | Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1501.49 | 1586.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.82 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 2.18 | 2.19 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.10 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 7.40 |