← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Sep 15, 10:40 PM UTC · scheduled
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 57% | 1.67 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 43% | 2.24 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)