← Major League Baseball 2026 · playoffs · Sun, Oct 4, 08:00 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Michael King (ERA 3.21, WHIP 1.18) · home: Logan Henderson (ERA 2.47, WHIP 0.84)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: San Diego Padres win in Milwaukee Brewers v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.80 lost leg 2: Diamondbacks/Phillies win in Milwaukee Brewers v Diamondbacks/Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.80 lost | Portfolio | $7.63 | 2.80 | $13.73 | -58% | -7.63 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 57% | 1.79 |
| San Diego Padres win | 43% | 2.90 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres win | 2.01 | 2.14 | +6.4% | |
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 1.62 | 1.73 | +6.9% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Milwaukee Brewers | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| elo | NaN | 1559.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | — | 11.82 |