New York Yankees v Baltimore Orioles

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 27, 05:05 PM UTC · scheduled

Probable pitchers: away: Shane Baz (ERA 4.11, WHIP 1.35) · home: Elmer Rodríguez (ERA 5.4, WHIP 1.58)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.77	Portfolio	$10.64	1.77	$8.19	+6%	—	pending
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.65	Elo value MLB	$10.00	1.65	$6.48	+5%	—	pending

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
New York Yankees win	57%	1.83
Baltimore Orioles win	43%	2.66

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Baltimore Orioles win		2.66	2.18	-18.0%
New York Yankees win		1.42	1.72	+21.3%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.