← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Sep 15, 10:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: · home: Rhett Lowder (ERA 5.81, WHIP 1.53)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.01 | Portfolio | $5.64 | 3.01 | $11.34 | +6% | -5.64 | lost |
leg 1: Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.01 lost leg 2: Tampa Bay Rays win in Tampa Bay Rays v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.47 won leg 3: Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.83 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 8.10 | $14.19 | +26% | -2.00 | lost |
Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.01 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 3.01 | $20.10 | +15% | -10.00 | lost |
Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.66 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.66 | $16.59 | -1% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers win | 65% | 1.50 |
| Cincinnati Reds win | 35% | 3.01 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers win | 1.48 | 1.43 | -3.4% | |
| Cincinnati Reds win | 2.66 | 2.90 | +9.1% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cincinnati Reds | Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1459.01 | 1582.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.08 | 3.40 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 8.40 | 3.20 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 5.80 |