← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Sep 15, 10:40 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.01 lost leg 2: Tampa Bay Rays win in Tampa Bay Rays v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.47 won leg 3: Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.83 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 8.10 | $14.19 | +26% | -2.00 | lost |
Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.83 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.83 | $8.30 | +4% | +8.30 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians win | 54% | 1.83 |
| Chicago White Sox win | 46% | 2.29 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox win | 2.01 | 2.07 | +3.0% | |
| Cleveland Guardians win | 1.73 | 1.79 | +3.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cleveland Guardians | Chicago White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1499.03 | 1493.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.90 | -2.89 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.10 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.00 |