← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Sep 8, 11:40 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago Cubs win in Milwaukee Brewers v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.89 | Portfolio | $7.82 | 2.89 | $14.78 | +8% | -7.82 | lost |
Chicago Cubs win in Milwaukee Brewers v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.73 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.73 | $17.33 | +13% | -10.00 | lost |
Chicago Cubs win in Milwaukee Brewers v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.46 | $14.59 | +1% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 63% | 1.90 |
| Chicago Cubs win | 37% | 2.89 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs win | 2.40 | 1.93 | -19.5% | |
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 1.55 | 1.90 | +22.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Milwaukee Brewers | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 20.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1579.12 | 1548.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.99 | 1.05 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 1.23 | 1.23 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 6.50 | 5.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 6.80 |