← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Sep 22, 01:45 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Zebby Matthews (ERA 4.74, WHIP 1.24) · home: Blade Tidwell (ERA 4.56, WHIP 1.2)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.00 | Portfolio | $10.73 | 2.00 | $10.73 | +6% | +10.73 | won |
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.86 | $8.61 | +7% | +8.61 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins win | 50% | 2.81 |
| San Francisco Giants win | 50% | 2.01 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins win | 1.90 | 2.81 | +48.3% | |
| San Francisco Giants win | 1.86 | 1.46 | -21.6% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| San Francisco Giants | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | San Francisco Giants | Minnesota Twins |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1461.23 | 1454.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.06 | 7.12 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.23 | 1.23 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 4.80 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.70 |