← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Sep 9, 10:45 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.50 | Portfolio | $13.14 | 1.50 | $6.57 | +4% | -13.14 | lost |
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.48 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.48 | $4.80 | +8% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 64% | 1.55 |
| Los Angeles Angels win | 36% | 2.82 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Angels win | 2.52 | 2.76 | +9.6% | |
| Boston Red Sox win | 1.50 | 1.47 | -2.1% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Angels | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Boston Red Sox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boston Red Sox | Los Angeles Angels |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1552.48 | 1423.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.61 | 6.47 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 3.20 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.40 |