← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Sep 11, 11:05 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Nolan McLean (ERA 3.06, WHIP 1.14) · home: Carlos Rodón (ERA 3.09, WHIP 1.17)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 | Portfolio | $10.92 | 1.76 | $8.30 | +5% | +8.30 | won |
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.65 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.65 | $6.48 | +5% | +6.48 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees win | 56% | 1.76 |
| New York Mets win | 44% | 2.29 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets win | 2.14 | 2.17 | +1.4% | |
| New York Yankees win | 1.70 | 1.72 | +1.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| New York Yankees | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — | 6 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | New York Yankees | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1565.54 | 1501.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.11 | 7.82 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 2.02 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 6.80 |