Washington Nationals 6–3 Philadelphia Phillies

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Sep 15, 10:45 PM UTC

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.89	Portfolio	$7.83	2.89	$14.80	+8%	+14.80	won
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.59	$15.88	+7%	+15.88	won
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.59	$15.88	+7%	+15.88	won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Philadelphia Phillies win	63%	1.57
Washington Nationals win	37%	2.89

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Philadelphia Phillies win		1.57	1.48	-5.8%
Washington Nationals win		2.59	2.76	+6.6%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Philadelphia Phillies	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	3
Washington Nationals	2	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	—	6

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Washington Nationals	Philadelphia Phillies
congestion 21d	18.00	18.00
elo	1455.09	1554.83
elo momentum (last 5)	0.47	-2.12
matches since win	0.00	0.00
rest days	2.22	2.22
runs against avg (last 10)	5.70	4.90
runs for avg (last 10)	3.70	4.40